Publications

Lower GDP growth of 2.5% in 2016 and government budget hit by lower oil price. Public spending is curbed in order to trim the high budget deficit.

Weak economic situation and uncertain outlook as the security situation remains tense. Inflation is high and the business sentiment remains subdued.

A modest economic rebound expected in 2016, but fiscal consolidation remains difficult. Jordan remains heavily dependent on foreign donors support.

In 2016 economic growth will decrease to 3% due to less agriculture output and decreasing exports. In 2017 GDP is expected to rebound again, growing 4.5%.

The economy still has room to absorb the oil price slump, but a long-term period of low oil prices would hurt. Economic diversification is on the agenda.

A moderate economic rebound is expected in 2016 and 2017, given that the domestic security situation will not again hurt tourism and business sentiment.

As the oil price decrease has a negative impact on government revenues and lending conditions, many businesses face liquidity issues and payment delays.

The chemicals sectors in both Germany and France are scoring well and show robust performance. Still, some challenges lie ahead for both countries.

Atradius identifies the most vulnerable countries and sectors in Europe to Brexit. The impact will be most acute in Ireland, Netherlands, and Belgium.

Despite still robust growth rate of the ICT market in China, challenges are increasing. Competition is getting fiercer, and labour costs are increasing.

Despite overall growth, many French ICT companies face structurally low margins, price pressure and an on-going consolidation process in the market.

The ICT market in the United States is expected to benefit further from stable economic growth. No further decrease in insolvencies expected in 2016.

Unless they are well-established in niche products, smaller companies in Germany are expected to continue to be the losers in a cut-throat environment.

The IT spending capacity of SMEs in Italy remains subdued. This may be a consequence of still restricted access to bank loans for smaller businesses.

In the UK, many IT resellers continue to lessen their reliance on hardware sales by offering value added services in order to increase their margins.

The Australian government is driving growth in the IT market through its purchase programme and various initiatives, such as a Cyber Security Strategy.

In 2016, growth in the Japanese ICT sector is expected to be modest at 0.9%, due to market saturation and a low economic growth forecast of 0.6%.

The industry is characterised by sharp price erosion and fierce competition, especially in the wholesalers segment. Market concentration is still on-going.

Currently all Russian electronics / ICT subsectors face major troubles, especially those retailers and wholesalers that trade in foreign currency.

The turbulent waters that the global economy faced at the beginning of the year have calmed but the underlying issues persist.

The economy in Eastern Europe is forecast to continue growing 1.1% this year. However, trade credit risk from foreign late payment is on the rise.

Respondents in the Czech Republic (46.5%) seem to be most convinced that domestic B2B customers use outstanding invoices for their financial advantage.

Hungarian respondents (76%) seem to be the hardest hit by late payment of domestic invoices due to customers’ insufficient funds (64% in Eastern Europe).

More respondents in Poland (around 30%) than in Eastern Europe (around 20%) are concerned about a worsening of the DSO figure over the next 12 months.

30% of respondents in Slovakia (18% in Eastern Europe) consider maintaining adequate cash flow as the biggest challenge to business profitability in 2016.

Turkey has the highest domestic payment default rate in Eastern Europe, with 61.1% of the total value of domestic B2B invoices paid late (55.2% in 2015).

In 2015, Austrian business insolvencies decreased by 5%. However, in 2016 the pace of corporate insolvency decrease is expected to slow down to just 2%.

In Belgium, business failures are expected to decline by 7% in 2016. The level of corporate insolvencies will still be higher compared to 2008 levels.

The Danish economy is expected to grow 1.4% in 2016 spurred by improved investment and growing exports. Danish exporters will benefit from rising demand.

French business insolvencies are expected to decrease only about 4% in 2016. The number of insolvencies will still be about 10% higher than in 2008.

In 2015, the German economy grew 1.7%, spurred by household consumption which increased 1.9%. Private consumption remains a key driver of growth in 2016.

The Irish economy registered a strong performance, increasing 5.2% in 2014 and 6.8% in 2015. In 2016, growth is expected to slow down but remain robust.

Since 2014, Dutch business failures started to decrease, and are expected to decline further in 2016. However, this figure is still higher than in 2008.

Italy is expected to see only a modest insolvency decrease in 2016 after years of steady increases. This is in line with the modest economic rebound.

In 2016, Spain is expected to see another improvement in business failures (10% decrease), but compared to 2008 levels, insolvencies remain high.

The Swedish economy is forecast to grow 2.9% in 2016. Supported by low interest rates, household consumption and investment are expected to grow.

Swiss business insolvencies increased 7% in 2015 due to a more difficult economic environment. The number of corporate insolvencies remains high in 2016.

In the United Kingdom, consumer spending is still fuelling the economic expansion, helped by a decrease in unemployment and low consumer price inflation.

Poor payment practices of B2B customers caused financial distress on businesses in Western Europe and a ripple effect throughout the whole supply chain.

Due to late payment, nearly twice as many respondents in Austria (21%) than in Western Europe delayed investment, in property, plant and equipment.

As seen in France, more respondents in Belgium (30%) than in Western Europe (22.4%) expect deterioration in their DSO over the next 12 months.

Half of our Danish respondents (27% in Western Europe) said that B2B customers delay payments as they use outstanding invoices as a form of financing.

Notably more respondents in France (31.3%) than in Western Europe (22.4%) expect deterioration in their DSO over the next 12 months.

93.0% of respondents in Germany experienced late payment of invoices by B2B customers over the past year. This in spite of very strict payment terms.

Far more respondents in Greece (87%) than in Western Europe (57.9%) said that domestic B2B customers pay invoices late due to liquidity issues.

Around 40% of respondents in Ireland said they will check their customers’ payment records and increase monitoring of their buyers’ credit risk.

Due to late payment of commercial invoices, notably more respondents in Italy (41%) than in Western Europe (23.7%) delayed payments to their suppliers.

Despite a firm grip on trade receivables management, 1 in 5 respondents in the Netherlands had to delay payments to their own suppliers.

Two in five respondents in Spain expect payment practices of B2B customers in the consumer durables industry to deteriorate over the next 12 months.

One in four Swedish respondents believe that late payment from export customers is due to external factors such as inefficiencies of the banking system.