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Access a snapshot of the credit risk situation and business performance of 14 major industries in your country. The forecast is based on the assessment of Atradius underwriters.
The number of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2019, and is expected to increase further in 2020, mainly affecting private-owned producers.
For many businesses both demand and profit margins are expected to deteriorate further, with a moderate rebound expected in H2 of 2020 at the earliest.
The sector benefits from the lift of US import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, with profit margins of steel businesses expected to improve again.
Demand for metals and steel is currently impacted by the slowdown in demand from automotive and reduced investment from other manufacturing industries.
Due to a high level of non-performing assets in the sector banks are now unwilling to provide credit to the industry, causing additional liquidity issues.
Lower demand coupled with decreasing sales prices and higher prices for iron ore have led to deteriorating margins of steel producers and distributors.
Competitive price pressure has led to deteriorationg profit margins for steel producers as well as steel and metals distributors over the past 12 months.
Ireland’s highly open economy is cooling off and demand in export markets is set to remain weak while the domestic economy faces increasing capacity constraints and lower government spending.
In Italy, business insolvencies are expected to increase in 2019, by about 4%. This is due to economic stagnation, increased political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.
GDP growth in the Netherlands is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019. After several years of sharp decreases in insolvencies, this year is likely to mark a turning point.
As economic growth decelerates, and the manufacturing sector struggles amid lower global trade, Western Europe expects to close the year with a 2.7% increase in insolvencies.
Insolvencies are rising, and structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions on productivity and investment weigh on the economic expansion.
The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.
As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.
The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.
Political instability remains an issue for the long-term economic growth prospects, while corruption and red tape still hamper the business environment.
Beside deterioration of payment behaviour in the private sector, the number of payment delays in larger projects dependent on government funding is still high.
In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.
Slow reform progress and social tensions weigh on the medium-term outlook, while economic expansion remains heavily dependent on the security situation.
GDP growth is expected to recover only modestly as the oil fund is nearly depleted, and ongoing political uncertainty weighs on the economic performance.
Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to lose some momentum in 2019, but should remain strong at above 3%, spurred by robust household spending, strong wage growth and an improving labour market
The amount of suppliers facing insolvency will increase further in the coming 2-3 years, as many will find it hard to adapt to changing market conditions.
Any imposition of import tariffs on cars/car parts would severely impact suppliers in the Tier 2 segment where many businesses already show thin margins.
While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.
Local-owned Tier 2 suppliers remain susceptible to commodity price changes and exchange rate volatility, with limited options to pass on higher prices.