Publications

Despite a rebound, the economic environment remains challenging due to a fragile political landscape, high unemployment, and fiscal policy issues.

Since H2 of 2017 economic growth has recovered from low copper prices and lower demand from China, strikes in the mining sector and weaker domestic demand.

Since H2 of 2017 GDP growth has started to accelerate again, due to a more supportive external environment and the effects of monetary policy stimulus.

In a highly competitive and fragmented market retailers’ profit margins are expected to remain under pressure in 2018 after deteriorating in 2017.

Consumer durables are expected to continue their sales expansion in 2018, although at a lower pace than in 2017 as private consumption growth slows.

In 2018 sales are expected to be affected by slower household spending growth, triggered by a weaker housing market and subdued growth in household income.

The profit margins of Indian non-food retailers are expected to moderate in 2018 due to growing competition and the rising market share of e-commerce.

Despite good sales prospects, there remains substantial uncertainty related to VAT tax issues amongst retailers as tax controls have been intensified.

Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia, on the back of its large population and growing middle class with higher purchasing power.

The short-term outlook is benign with private consumption expected to increase by more than 6% in 2018, but higher inflation could have a dampening effect.

The best way for smaller retailers to survive is to join a large purchasing association and to compete with e-commerce by providing outstanding service.

As a result of more difficult trading conditions retailers profit margins have deteriorated in H2 of 2017, and further decline is expected in 2018.

The business environment is highly competitive among the different distribution networks, reinforced by the increasing market share of online retailers.

Many long-standing retail chains are highly indebted, often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms, while investors reconsider further lending.

The number of brick-and-mortar stores has significantly decreased - despite the fact that high street also benefits from the current sales increase.

The growing insecurity over US trade policy pushes the European Union and trading partners to speed up the completion of free trade agreement negotiations

By raising tariffs on steel and aluminium the US president has proudly delivered on a campaign promise. US steel and aluminium producers gain, but it comes at the expense of US metal consuming firms.

Business insolvencies in China are expected to increase further this year in 2018, as companies face tighter credit conditions and the economic rebalancing process is on-going.

The economic growth outlook for 2018 remains robust, but a rather weak banking sector and high foreign indebtedness of domestic firms remain concerns.

The economic outlook remains positive with expected GDP growth rates of more than 5% in 2017 and 2018, and vulnerability to external shocks has declined.