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The economic impact of USMCA on Mexican-US trade is likely to be limited, as it is effectively a small modification of the pre-existing NAFTA agreement.
Trade policy uncertainty is one of the top risks to US businesses and consumers in 2019 that may bring the next downturn on more quickly than expected.
Some larger players continue to push the supply chain on price and longer payment terms, adding cash flow challenges to mainly smaller food businesses.
Despite efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain, a hard Brexit remains a major challenge, also for shipments to mainland Europe.
Even the biggest food retailers are small compared to other major international players, and e-commerce is increasingly challenging traditional businesses.
The new Mexican government could launch policies in order to increase domestic production and put emphasis on domestic agricultural support programmes.
After shrinking in 2018 US food businesses´ profit margins are expected to decrease further in 2019, as fuel prices and other input costs are increasing.
The number of protracted payments in the sector is rather high as larger businesses use their leverage against suppliers by demanding long payment terms.
Both payment delays and insolvencies could increase in 2019, especially if price and margin pressures rise and activity in the construction sector slows.