Publications

The adoption of a pension reform that provides savings of at least 600-700 billion reais is key to keep public debt sustainable and to sustain invertors’ confidence in the long-term.

Coupled with high interest rates of more than 60% austerity measures will deepen and lengthen the economic contraction, and a rebound expected in late 2019 at the earliest.

Shock resistance is strong due to prudent economic and financial policies, but a serious disturbance of global trade by protectionism would hurt exports.

GDP is forecast to grow about 3% annually, driven by higher oil prices, investments and consumption, but concerns about the fiscal deficit remain an issue.

Main risks to the outlook are a hard landing of the Chinese economy and social unrest in the mining sector, which could affect the investment climate.

Higher costs of raw materials and import tariffs have increased operational costs and reduced overall profitability in the household appliances segment.

The UK sales outlook for consumer durables in 2019 is more subdued as household finances are strained and private consumption growth is decreasing.

Insolvencies are expected to level off or to increase slightly in 2019, in line with the forecast of a modest 2% increase in Dutch business failures.

Many smaller retailers lack the flexibility and financial means to adapt business models to changing consumer habits, and the credit risk remains elevated.

Retailers´ margins are expected to decrease further due to the fierce competitive market environment in most segments and increased price transparency.

Profit margins of retailers in the online segment to increase slightly in 2019, while brick-and-mortar retailers face continued margin pressure.

The number of payment delays and protracted defaults is expected to remain high in 2019, due to ongoing cash flow problems and restricted access to loans.

Even larger consumer durables retailers could face troubles due to increased financial exposure after acquisitions and the difficult economic environment.

Good payment behaviour in the household appliances, furniture and consumer electronics segments over the past two years, and no major changes are expected.

Both payment delays and insolvencies are expected to increase in the coming six months, mainly affecting smaller consumer durables retailers in Belgium.

With its large population, growing middle class and increasingly modern spending habits Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia.

China´s economic growth is forecast to slow down to 6% while downside risks have increased and business insolvencies will increase further in 2019

India´s economic outlook for 2019 and 2020 remains robust with about 7% growth, but a weak banking sector and high corporate indebtedness are concerns.

Indonesia´s short-term economic prospects are generally positive, but it remains vulnerable to sharply decreasing capital flows to emerging markets.

Japan´s export growth will slow down due to lower global trade expansion, but domestic demand will underpin the economic expansion of about 1% in 2019.