Publications

The economy is currently forecast to expand by about 3.5% in 2020, however, this depends on decent performance in agriculture, tourism, and exports.

Slow reform progress and social tensions weigh on the medium-term outlook, while economic expansion remains heavily dependent on the security situation.

GDP growth is expected to recover only modestly as the oil fund is nearly depleted, and ongoing political uncertainty weighs on the economic performance.

Economic growth in Eastern Europe is projected to remain solid this year, despite losing steam mainly because of poor growth prospects for Turkey.

Economic growth in Romania is expected to slow down to around 3-3.1% this year, and to sink below 3% in 2020

Real GDP growth in Slovakia is forecast to remain strong – 3.3% – this year and to slow slightly down to 3.2% in 2020

Economic expansion in the Czech Republic is forecast to remain positive over the coming months, with an average growth rate of about 3% this year.

Real GDP growth in Poland is forecast to reach 4.4% this year, slowing down to 3.6% in 2020.

Financial conditions in Turkey will be tighter in the coming months.

Economic expansion in Bulgaria is expected to lose some momentum in 2019, but should remain strong at above 3%, spurred by robust household spending, strong wage growth and an improving labour market

Economic growth in Hungary gained momentum recently, with real GDP gains expected to reach 4.4% this year.

Iran continues to demonstrate economic resilience but prospects for integration into the world economy remain far off.

Argentina has introduced currency controls to stabilise peso in the run-up to elections.

The amount of suppliers facing insolvency will increase further in the coming 2-3 years, as many will find it hard to adapt to changing market conditions.

Many German Tier 2 suppliers face the issue that their products are easily substitutable, while their solvency and equity position is generally weak.

Any imposition of import tariffs on cars/car parts would severely impact suppliers in the Tier 2 segment where many businesses already show thin margins.

Small basic component parts producers often suffer from poor equity, while at the same time they face increasing difficulties obtaining bank finance.

While the automotive insolvency level has been low compared to other industries in the past, an increase of up to 3% is expected in the coming 12 months.

Suppliers active in the combustion engine parts and car metals segments are severely affected by deteriorating demand and a high level of competition.

US tariffs could severely impact Japanese suppliers of low value added/basic car parts, as OEMs could replace their products with tariff-free items.