Publications

Regaining investors’ trust will be key to Fernández’s success in reinvigorating the Argentinian economy, but it is not the only thing.

Cyprus's economy is on solid ground but crisis legacies persist.

Ireland’s highly open economy is cooling off and demand in export markets is set to remain weak while the domestic economy faces increasing capacity constraints and lower government spending.

The UK is facing the highest increase in insolvencies in 2019 and 2020 in Western Europe.

In Italy, business insolvencies are expected to increase in 2019, by about 4%. This is due to economic stagnation, increased political uncertainty and tighter credit conditions.

Economic growth in Germany is expected to cool to 0.6% in 2019 down from 1.6% one year ago.

GDP growth in the Netherlands is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2019. After several years of sharp decreases in insolvencies, this year is likely to mark a turning point.

As economic growth decelerates, and the manufacturing sector struggles amid lower global trade, Western Europe expects to close the year with a 2.7% increase in insolvencies.

Insolvencies are rising, and structural weaknesses and the negative impact of sanctions on productivity and investment weigh on the economic expansion.

Due to the recent economic downturn the credit risk situation of some major industries has deteriorated, and insolvencies are expected to increase.

Worries over the impact of adverse external factors like US import tariffs and the Brexit decision on Polish export and investment growth remain.

In 2020 household consumption is expected to accelerate, sustained by further decreasing unemployment, low inflation, and a minimum wage increase.

The economy is highly integrated into international value chains, making it vulnerable to major foreign trade losses, especially in the automotive sector.

The forint remains vulnerable to international investors’ sentiment due to the elevated external and public debt levels and institutional issues.

As the economy is reliant on automotive-related exports to the Eurozone, especially to Germany, it is vulnerable to adverse developments in the industry.

The currency is subject to some volatility, and the country is vulnerable to capital outflows should there be adverse internal or external developments.

Political instability remains an issue for the long-term economic growth prospects, while corruption and red tape still hamper the business environment.

Despite a modest economic rebound the business performance and credit risk situation of several industries remains strained, especially in Dubai.

Beside deterioration of payment behaviour in the private sector, the number of payment delays in larger projects dependent on government funding is still high.

In 2019 and 2020 growth is expected to exceed 5%, supported by exchange rate liberalization, interest rate normalisation and increasing tourist arrivals.